I am reconsidering whether Trump is as dumb as he looks.

[osewalrus]

 I'm actually reconsidering whether Trump is a tactical genius or a moron. To say he utterly snookered the Republican establishment and has achieved a total takeover of the Republican Party is to understate matters -- and NOT what people expected a year ago. At this time last year, convention wisdom was that Trump was going to have a significant number of party loyalists/insiders in critical positions at the WH and in the Administration, and a much saner foreign policy team with Mike Flynn out of the picture. While there was still plenty of argument in the CW as to whether Trumpian factions (such as Bannon) would predominate, or whether Trump would keep the various foreign policy factions at play against each other, or whether Trump would ultimately end up as "handled" by the party (at least on foreign policy).

One year later, Trump has cleared out not merely the party faithful that might constrain him, but any other potential moderating influences as well -- such as Tillerson. It is noteworthy that in the two areas where he has clearly defined and consistent policy objectives, foreign policy and trade, he has installed true believers in his policies, who have consistently proven they are (a) free from any restraining scruples; and, (b) total suck ups to whoever is the boss.

I am having a very hard time believing that could be entirely attributed to dumb luck. While I am not claim Trump is some modern Machiavelli who came in with a shrewd plan to manipulate the system, such as assumption is not required. And this is where people screw up in assessing Trump. They believe he has to be either a total moron or a total genius. The more likely explanation is that he is a really talented opportunist. Think of someone you know from work or a hobby who somehow always manages to get his or her way, somehow always manages to wriggle out of consequences for his/her actions, and somehow manages to take credit for a bunch of stuff other people do.

Is that person a secret genius? I suspect not. Is that person a total moron, even if they actually have no idea about the substance of what to do when they are put in charge? Also probably not. 


That's Trump. Except instead of doing it to get put in charge of a big project at work, Trump did it to the entire Republican Party elite and would-be elite, such as Steve Bannon. (Yes, this may be the kind of *policy* Bannon wanted. But you will notice he is gone and no longer be able to enjoy the reputation as the "true" mastermind and puppet master.)  

With the exception of Kelly as a possible restraining influence, Trump has his Dream Team on both foreign policy and trade policy: his two real priorities where he has specific things he wants done and where he was most likely to be directly challenged by both the Republican party leadership and the wealthy donor class who oppose his hawkish moves as a threat to stability and profitable trade. He has removed anyone who might become any sort of internal rival or would possess their own personal agenda -- such as Steve Bannon. He has gutted the apparatus of the State Department and the foreign service of anyone able or willing to hinder or restrain him, and his new, more trusted subordinates have the capability to fill these vacant slots with loyal Trumpists. (Experience and talent are not an issue -- so the departure of experienced and talented individuals is not regarded as a cost.)

Again, I am having a hard time believing this is mere chance.
 

So much else about Trump confirms the stereotypes of him as a self-absorbed shallow narcissist and boor that imagining him as capable of such a carefully orchestrated, long-term multi-dimensional chess game is, if not ridiculous, difficult to accept. Am I suggesting that Trump is really so devilishly clever, so Machiavellian, so classic James Bond supervillain?

No. Nor does what I propose require such an assumption. What most people fail to realize is that (a) a person can be a complete idiot about a lot of things but still be really gifted at manipulating people and circumstances; and (b) Trump didn't need a brilliant, Machiavellian plan. He just needed to be alert for opportunities and prepared to move when the time came.

(Did you notice that, unlike the usual blundering, Trump knew *exactly* who he wanted to replace Tillerson, Gary Cohn, and now McMaster? When he cares, Trump can be totally prepared and focused.)

It is also extremely consistent with the rest of Trump's life. I do not need to believe Trump to be brilliant or even generally smart to believe that he has a true talent for manipulating both people and systems to his advantage and getting stuff he really wants. Usually, the stuff he really wants is pretty venal. It is the great misfortune of the United States and the planet generally that what Trump wanted this time was to prove his long-held brag that if *he* were in charge, he would show those foreign countries who was boss!