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osewalrusFascinating new study discussed here attempting to measure any impacts of voter ID laws. The authors of the study are duly cautious and cite the need for more research. I'm not going to write out the methodology (click through if you are that interested). But the authors set out to measure the following:
1. Do voter ID laws impact incidence of voter fraud?
Ans: No. Using tracking databases from both conservative and liberal sources, there was no evidence supporting any significant impact on incidents of voter fraud (which are pretty rare in any event).*
*As some have noted, he 2018 North Carolina House race was a case of voter theft, not voter fraud. Voter I.D. laws don't help in those cases any more than requiring a credit card for transactions prevents against identity theft.
2. Do voter ID laws impact the perception of voter fraud? i.e. Do people in states with stronger voter ID laws think those laws make their elections more fair, more secure, and less subject to voter fraud.
Ans: Surprisingly, no. No matter how stringent the voter laws passed by the state, surveys conducted before and after show that attitudes about the prevalence of voter fraud remain virtually unchanged.
3. Do voter ID laws suppress turn out?
Ans: Surprisingly, no. Although the authors admit that there may be some loss of voting at the margin, which could certainly make a difference in close elections, they could find no statistical evidence that passing voter ID laws impacted the voter turnout. (Again, read the article if you want methodology).
What is interesting is that this is not a novel finding. What few other studies have been done have also found that there is no statistical evidence of significant decrease in voting behavior a result of voter ID laws, although anecdotal evidence suggests that there is some small impact which falls within the margin of error of the studies. This is important when evaluating whether voter ID laws are "harmless," as we usually regard any sort of chilling effect on fundamental rights, however slight, harmful. Given the lack of evidence that they do anything positive -- they don't even increase the perception of reducing voter fraud -- the finding that they do not appear to cause a statistical decline in voting does not make it OK or merely neutral. Even anecdotal evidence of a chilling effect is -- from a traditional legal balancing matter at least -- a harm that requires a showing of substantial benefit to offset.
4. Do voter ID laws mobilize voters, counteracting their effect.
Ans: Again, surprisingly, no. One theory explaining finding #3 (which, as I've noted, has been replicated by what few other studies that have looked at the question) is that voter ID laws produce a "backlash effect" among populations most likely impacted by the voter ID laws. The study authors could find no evidence of mobilization based on voter ID laws that would counter any suppression effect. They postulate that although the populations critics of voter ID laws argue are being targeted by these laws do, in fact, have lower rates of applying for driver's license or passport (the most common government issued IDs), the segment of these populations that are motivated to vote already have IDs, or are not deterred by the need to get an ID. But they also caution there is no evidence to support this explanation.
As with all good studies, the authors acknowledge the limitations, warn against drawing over-broad conclusions and urge more study be done.
As always, life is complicated and measuring impacts of things in complex systems is hard. But the fact that Voter ID laws aren't even good security theater for those who support them is an excellent reason to get rid of them. Why bother with something so divisive if it doesn't even make people who demand it feel any better?
1. Do voter ID laws impact incidence of voter fraud?
Ans: No. Using tracking databases from both conservative and liberal sources, there was no evidence supporting any significant impact on incidents of voter fraud (which are pretty rare in any event).*
*As some have noted, he 2018 North Carolina House race was a case of voter theft, not voter fraud. Voter I.D. laws don't help in those cases any more than requiring a credit card for transactions prevents against identity theft.
2. Do voter ID laws impact the perception of voter fraud? i.e. Do people in states with stronger voter ID laws think those laws make their elections more fair, more secure, and less subject to voter fraud.
Ans: Surprisingly, no. No matter how stringent the voter laws passed by the state, surveys conducted before and after show that attitudes about the prevalence of voter fraud remain virtually unchanged.
3. Do voter ID laws suppress turn out?
Ans: Surprisingly, no. Although the authors admit that there may be some loss of voting at the margin, which could certainly make a difference in close elections, they could find no statistical evidence that passing voter ID laws impacted the voter turnout. (Again, read the article if you want methodology).
What is interesting is that this is not a novel finding. What few other studies have been done have also found that there is no statistical evidence of significant decrease in voting behavior a result of voter ID laws, although anecdotal evidence suggests that there is some small impact which falls within the margin of error of the studies. This is important when evaluating whether voter ID laws are "harmless," as we usually regard any sort of chilling effect on fundamental rights, however slight, harmful. Given the lack of evidence that they do anything positive -- they don't even increase the perception of reducing voter fraud -- the finding that they do not appear to cause a statistical decline in voting does not make it OK or merely neutral. Even anecdotal evidence of a chilling effect is -- from a traditional legal balancing matter at least -- a harm that requires a showing of substantial benefit to offset.
4. Do voter ID laws mobilize voters, counteracting their effect.
Ans: Again, surprisingly, no. One theory explaining finding #3 (which, as I've noted, has been replicated by what few other studies that have looked at the question) is that voter ID laws produce a "backlash effect" among populations most likely impacted by the voter ID laws. The study authors could find no evidence of mobilization based on voter ID laws that would counter any suppression effect. They postulate that although the populations critics of voter ID laws argue are being targeted by these laws do, in fact, have lower rates of applying for driver's license or passport (the most common government issued IDs), the segment of these populations that are motivated to vote already have IDs, or are not deterred by the need to get an ID. But they also caution there is no evidence to support this explanation.
As with all good studies, the authors acknowledge the limitations, warn against drawing over-broad conclusions and urge more study be done.
As always, life is complicated and measuring impacts of things in complex systems is hard. But the fact that Voter ID laws aren't even good security theater for those who support them is an excellent reason to get rid of them. Why bother with something so divisive if it doesn't even make people who demand it feel any better?
no subject
Date: 2019-03-19 04:49 pm (UTC)