Boomers (barely) outvoted by all others in 2018 election

[osewalrus]

The percentage of the population of voting age younger than Boomers finally became the majority 2014. Boomers still dominate elections, however, but even this is starting to change slowly.

All generations younger than Boomers barely outvoted Boomers in 2016, marking the first Presidential election this was the case.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/31/gen-zers-millennials-and-gen-xers-outvoted-boomers-and-older-generations-in-2016-election/

All generations younger than Boomers barely outvoted Boomers in 2018. This marked a very significant shift from 2014 -- in no small part because Millennials have traditionally had abysmal turn out on voting.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/

All this gets into my need to make some adjustments on my old "demographic snake" model. The shifts I anticipated are happening at the pace I anticipated (extremely rapidly) in economics and social trends -- but not in politics. In fact, my political model turned out to be significantly wrong, starting with the primaries which were entirely Boomer dominated. But I think I know what the problems were and can adjust.

Now, oddly, the biggest issue going forward is the mortality age in rural areas.

Comments

[vettecat]

When do you expect the Millennials to really start having an impact?

[osewalrus]

I'm not sure at the moment. In many ways, they are already having impact. But as to when this will be decisive is hard to say because it depends on whether those younger than 50 become disheartened because the system fails to reflect their preferences or whether they stay energized and keep hammering. From about 2010-16, younger voters were highly discouraged from participating in the two-party electoral politics and focused on other forms of engagement and activism. Then Trump got elected. 2018 saw major turn out by the under-50. I think that as long as there are young, dynamic leaders such as AOC out there pushing younger folks to continue to fight and engage, that we will see increasingly strong engagement, which will force the old guard to respond either by embracing the shift or by trying to squash the rebellion. But time favors the young, even if incumbency favors the old.